Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation

The drivers of the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum are studied within a framework based on Cagan’s model of hyperinflation. In the model, the prices of the cryptocurrencies are driven by stochastic adoption and velocity shocks as well as endogenous expectations of future prices. The model is estimated with data for prices, transaction volumes, and money supplies. A majority of price fluctuations in both currencies can be attributed to shocks in adoption, velocity shocks are much less important. The money demand sensitivity to expected price changes is estimated to be larger for Bitcoin than for Ethereum, and both have higher sensitivity than fiat currencies during episodes of hyperinflation.     

基于SD模型的装配式建筑供应链脆弱性研究

装配式建筑供应链的运作存在很多不确定性。为提高供应链管理效率，促进建筑业的发展，运用供应链运作参考(SCOR)模型对装配式建筑供应链脆弱因子进行识别，将装配式供应链系统划分为6个子系统；通过系统动力学（SD）模型对供应链脆弱性进行仿真。结果表明，装配制造流程是脆弱性最大的子系统，整个供应链的脆弱性随着建筑项目的推进而增大。     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.     

Change within purchasing and supply management organisations – Assessing the claims from maturity models

It is a wide-held assumption that professional development and change within purchasing and supply management (PSM) organisations can be explained and guided by a maturity model. In this paper the guidance which the maturity model concept offers to understand a PSM organisation's performance is assessed. The methodology is based on the outcomes of a literature review of PSM maturity models, development of an organisational change framework and the learning from three qualitative case studies. An alternative understanding of the development of the PSM organisation is offered through an organisational change framework, composing 1) movement transitions, 2) scalability of change, 3) acceptability of change, and 4) the substantive element of change. The research found that extant PSM maturity models are too rigid for PSM managers to apply, and although maturity models are commonly accepted in PSM literature, in practice, they may produce the opposite effect of what is promised. The PSM maturity models suggest that their application will lead to increased status and influence of PSM within the organisation; expectations that may not be met. PSM organisations’ change processes are subjected to a range of situational and contextual power relations which must be considered in order to advance the specific PSM organisation roles and responsibilities.     

Supply‐ versus Demand‐Side Policies in the Presence of Carbon Leakage and the Green Paradox

We consider a climate coalition that seeks to reduce global emissions in the presence of carbon leakage and resource exhaustibility. We show that a credible announcement of future unilateral supply‐side policies delays foreign emissions, and we derive the optimal combination of consumer taxes and producer taxes when we consider leakages from free riders, both within periods and across periods. The tax shares generally differ over time. A decline in the present value of the social cost of carbon over time supports a time path where the consumers’ tax share of the total carbon tax also declines over time. We illustrate our findings with a numerical model.     

The end of the flat tax experiment in Slovakia: An evaluation using behavioural microsimulation in a dynamic macroeconomic framework

The paper introduces a new way of linking microsimulation models with dynamic general equilibrium frameworks to obtain an evaluation of the impact of detailed tax and benefit measures on the aggregate economy. In the approach presented in this paper, income heterogeneity interacts with the macro-economy via aggregated individual labour supply decisions which influence, and are influenced by, the dynamic evolution of the real wage rate. The method involves a reduced-form representation of the information flow between the macroeconomic and microeconomic blocks. The practical usefulness of the approach is demonstrated by evaluating actual and hypothetical tax reforms that involve abandoning the flat tax system in Slovakia. A hypothetical move to a highly progressive tax structure is shown to generate some employment gains but is associated with a drop in aggregate income and tax revenue.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the demand for money in Africa

In order to account for currency substitution, the exchange rate is included in the demand for money. More recent studies have demonstrated that exchange rate changes could have asymmetric effects on the demand for money or domestic currency. In this paper, we consider the experiences of 18 African countries and show that in most countries, indeed exchange rate changes have short-run asymmetric effects on the demand for money. However, short-run effects translate to long-run asymmetric effects only in a limited number of African countries.     

Supplier Development Practices for Sustainability: A Multi‐Stakeholder Perspective

Supplier development for sustainability is a critical element of sustainable supply chain management and requires extensive multi‐stakeholder collaboration. This article establishes a conceptual four‐stage framework to analyse the collaborative mechanisms of supplier development practices, and presents an exploratory, qualitative analysis to identify the major contributors of sustainable supplier development practices, such as NGOs, industrial associations, consulting firms etc. Based on semi‐structured interviews about 63 organizations from different regions and industries, this article identifies three types of contributor: drivers, facilitators and inspectors. Instead of traditional stakeholder engagement processes, these contributors actively collaborate with buying firms and suppliers to design, implement and evaluate sustainable supplier development programs. The article then provides a matrix to describe the supply chain coverage and supplier performance of supplier development practices, given the absence or positive involvement of facilitators and inspectors. We conclude our study by suggesting future research directions as well as discussing managerial implications. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

产业互联下基于双循环的供应链合作稳定性研究

以一条由制造商和零售商组成的二级供应链为研究对象,通过测算产业互联度与双循环程度,研究对供应链合作稳定性的影响.研究发现:在国内环境中,产业互联度与内循环程度呈正比关系,产业互联度越高,内循环程度越高;内循环度程度提高,内需扩大,供应链上的企业选择合作时的整体收益要大于不合作时的收益,因此达到供应链长期稳定合作.通过从国内角度寻找出的规律应用于国际供应链中,为企业参与全球经济提供启示.     

Intercountry feedback and spillover effects within the international supply and use framework: a Bayesian perspective*

This paper proposes a new framework for the estimation of product-level global and interregional feedback and spillover (FS) factor multipliers. The framework is directly based on interregional supply and use tables (SUTs) that could be rectangular and gives a possibility of taking account of the inherent input–output data uncertainty problems. A Bayesian econometric approach is applied to the framework using the first version of international SUTs in the World Input–Output Database. The obtained estimates of the global and intercountry FS output effects are discussed and presented at the world, country and product levels for the period of 1995–2009.